HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$23.02
-0.05 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
+2.68%
30d:
-10.08%
90d:
-5.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HRL is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-03-20 with 6,972 OI. Call ratio: 77% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.40
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $23.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.61 to $24.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.62 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.62 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$22.61 -
$24.82
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.61 -
$24.82
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.10
Resistance Level
$23.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.58
Wall Street Target
$27.63
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.54
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$22.02
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$21.51
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$23.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$43.67
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$28.43
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$24.16
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.89
Bull Case
$43.29
(+93%)
Analyst growth 77.8%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$39.35
(+76%)
Market implied 77.8%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$15.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$24.68
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-01-13
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BUY
2025-11-10
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Advanced HRL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRL price and gamma walls.
