HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$24.61
0.17 (0.70%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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1 traders called HRL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.00
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $24.61, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.26 to $24.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.25 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.25 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$23.26 -
$24.71
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.26 -
$24.71
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.04
Resistance Level
$25.37
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.81
Wall Street Target
$27.25
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$24.46
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$24.39
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$24.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$41.66
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$29.54
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$25.11
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.87
Bull Case
$48.41
(+97%)
Analyst growth 78.9%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$44.01
(+79%)
Market implied 78.9%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$16.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$24.90
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-25
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-11
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