HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$36.29
-0.52 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.89%
30d:
-1.76%
90d:
-7.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.06
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $36.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.84 to $37.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.84 -
$37.98
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.84 -
$37.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.30
Resistance Level
$38.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.20
Wall Street Target
$39.67
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.49
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$34.71
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$33.95
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$36.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 31.5%)
$53.19
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 31.5%)
$36.63
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 31.5%)
$31.14
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$36.76
(+1%)
Analyst growth -9.2%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$33.42
(-8%)
Market implied -9.2%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$25.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$38.92
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
Steve B Thompson
SELL
9025 shares
2026-02-06
Martin Bradley Winges
SELL
26000 shares
2026-02-03
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