HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$38.82
-0.55 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+1.62%
90d:
+7.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.77
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $38.82, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.23 to $38.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.23 -
$38.91
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with -3.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.23 -
$38.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.79
Resistance Level
$38.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.26
Wall Street Target
$39.67
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.90
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$38.98
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$39.05
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.91
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 31.5%)
$52.49
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 31.5%)
$39.19
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 31.5%)
$33.31
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$39.31
(+1%)
Analyst growth -9.2%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$35.74
(-8%)
Market implied -9.2%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$26.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
Steve B Thompson
SELL
9025 shares
2026-02-06
Martin Bradley Winges
SELL
26000 shares
2026-02-03
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