HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$208.08
-0.85 (-0.41%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HWM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HWM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.08
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.37
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $208.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.77 to $219.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.9) is in line with its historical norms (46.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.75 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.75 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$208.77 -
$219.92
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($246.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$208.77 -
$219.92
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$207.78
Resistance Level
$226.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.91
Wall Street Target
$246.75
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
46.9 vs 46.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.14
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$209.35
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$209.56
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→47)
PE COMPRESSION
$209.05
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.9, Growth: 20.5%)
$365.31
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.5%)
$173.65
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 20.5%)
$147.60
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (59x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (47x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 59.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.56
Bull Case
$290.14
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 65.2
Base Case
$263.76
(+27%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 59.2
Bear Case
$143.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 50.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-09-16
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Byron Donalds
SELL
2025-08-07
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