HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$224.49
-3.41 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
-4.89%
30d:
-14.49%
90d:
+6.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HWM is down 5.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-04-17 with 479 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HWM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 20% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HWM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 20% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.54
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $224.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.63 to $259.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.5) compared to its historical average (46.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $227.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $227.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$237.63 -
$259.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($280.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$237.63 -
$259.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.68
Resistance Level
$245.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.46
Wall Street Target
$280.00
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.5 vs 46.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$219.24
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$210.91
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$202.89
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→47)
$228.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.5, Growth: 19.4%)
$388.03
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.4%)
$209.64
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.4%)
$178.20
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (62x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 62.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$378.40
(+60%)
Analyst growth 48.8%, PE expands to 68.7
Base Case
$344.00
(+46%)
Market implied 48.8%, PE stable at 62.5
Bear Case
$157.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.5 to 46.6
Stabilization Target:
$256.16
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HWM price and gamma walls.
