TDG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1348.49
39.31 (3.00%)
▲
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
+8.14%
90d:
+14.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TDG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TDG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1929.91
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1198.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1348.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1233.19 to $1318.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $1361.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TDG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1521.50 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $1361.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TDG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1521.50 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1233.19 -
$1318.94
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1521.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1233.19 -
$1318.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$66.98
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1280.70
Resistance Level
$1361.77
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.72
Wall Street Target
$1521.50
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
28.7 vs 28.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1355.23
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1362.01
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$1368.82
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$1348.95
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.7, Growth: 17.1%)
$2166.98
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.1%)
$1643.52
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.1%)
$1397.00
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.07
Bull Case
$2108.65
(+56%)
Analyst growth 46.4%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$1916.96
(+42%)
Market implied 46.4%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$890.24
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TDG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
W Nicholas Howley
SELL
10132 shares
2026-04-20
Joel Reiss
SELL
3900 shares
2026-04-15
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
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Advanced TDG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TDG price and gamma walls.
