INVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INVA - Innoviva, Inc. Common Stock
$21.00
0.02 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+6.49%
30d:
+5.69%
90d:
+15.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.36
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INVA is currently trading at $21.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.40 to $20.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+73.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+73.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$19.40 -
$20.13
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.3% below Wall St target ($36.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.40 -
$20.13
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.39
Resistance Level
$21.42
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$36.40
(+73.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5478.9%
Profit Margin
32.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$21.63
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$21.96
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.0%)
$95.14
(+353%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 28.0%)
$44.03
(+110%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 28.0%)
$37.42
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$29.94
(+43%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$27.22
(+30%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$15.10
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 04, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced INVA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INVA price and gamma walls.
