ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$261.26
-1.60 (-0.61%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$335.09
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$208.07
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $261.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $250.75 to $260.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $253.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $253.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$250.75 -
$260.23
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
44th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 44th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($262.97)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 2.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$250.75 -
$260.23
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.26
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$253.73
Resistance Level
$264.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.34
Wall Street Target
$262.97
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.1%
Profit Margin
19.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.54
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$270.27
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$274.06
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$263.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$328.37
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$313.74
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$266.68
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.30
Bull Case
$310.62
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$282.38
(+8%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$175.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randall J Scheuneman
SELL
6802 shares
2025-09-11
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
