ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$256.19
-2.85 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
-11.85%
90d:
+1.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
ITW is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $320 2026-06-18 with 370 OI. Call ratio: 88% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ITW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ITW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$366.55
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$227.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $256.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $264.09 to $291.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $256.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $256.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$264.09 -
$291.01
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($280.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$264.09 -
$291.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$256.13
Resistance Level
$271.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.12
Wall Street Target
$280.88
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Profit Margin
19.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$249.79
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$243.54
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$237.45
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$256.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$338.10
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 7.6%)
$319.45
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$271.53
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.49
Bull Case
$327.82
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$298.01
(+13%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$175.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.1 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$276.61
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shelley Moore Capito
SELL
2026-02-24
Axel Beck
SELL
4223 shares
2026-02-05
Ernest Scott Santi
SELL
167345 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
