JCAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$21.37
0.11 (0.52%)
ā²
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: JCAP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
ā BUY SIGNAL: JCAP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.08
Based on -8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.74
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $21.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.63 to $23.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$21.63 -
$23.08
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.63 -
$23.08
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.95
Resistance Level
$23.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.35
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.6%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.98
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.71
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$20.44
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8ā9)
$21.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -20.5%)
$41.37
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -20.5%)
$15.50
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -20.5%)
$13.17
(-38%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$21.68
(+2%)
Analyst growth -2.5%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$19.71
(-7%)
Market implied -2.5%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$13.75
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$22.14
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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