KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$131.01
10.50 (8.71%)
▲
5d:
+11.01%
30d:
-1.18%
90d:
+10.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$248.04
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$154.02
14.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $131.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.71 to $129.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$114.71 -
$129.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.71 -
$129.64
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.47
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.45
Resistance Level
$127.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.36
Wall Street Target
$124.50
(-5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.7%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$126.34
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$124.06
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$131.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.0%)
$360.85
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 21.0%)
$231.91
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 21.0%)
$197.13
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.77
Bull Case
$158.63
(+42%)
Analyst growth 34.7%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$144.21
(+30%)
Market implied 34.7%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$72.79
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$138.63
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
Blain Tiffany
SELL
8656 shares
2025-11-07
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