KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$122.62
-4.30 (-3.39%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.81
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $122.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.15 to $128.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.83, while resistance sits at $135.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.83, while resistance sits at $135.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$119.15 -
$128.54
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($112.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$119.15 -
$128.54
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.55
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.83
Resistance Level
$135.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.98
Wall Street Target
$112.50
(-8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
340.7%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.85
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$125.08
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$126.34
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.1%)
$351.37
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 27.1%)
$251.80
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 27.1%)
$214.03
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.16
Bull Case
$201.70
(+65%)
Analyst growth 48.7%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$183.37
(+50%)
Market implied 48.7%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$83.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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