KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$115.36
0.80 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
-11.36%
90d:
-1.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$249.68
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.03
25.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $115.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.95 to $129.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.45, while resistance sits at $122.98.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.45, while resistance sits at $122.98.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$114.95 -
$129.78
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.95 -
$129.78
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.58
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.45
Resistance Level
$122.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.56
Wall Street Target
$124.50
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.7%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$100.58
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$94.24
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$114.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.0%)
$361.66
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 21.0%)
$202.79
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 21.0%)
$172.37
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.77
Bull Case
$158.63
(+42%)
Analyst growth 34.7%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$144.21
(+30%)
Market implied 34.7%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$72.79
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$139.55
(+21.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
Blain Tiffany
SELL
8656 shares
2025-11-07
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