KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$25.69
-0.64 (-2.43%)
ā¼
5d:
-2.58%
30d:
-13.12%
90d:
-8.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.72
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.77
7.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $25.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.36 to $29.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $25.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.29 (+37.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $25.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.29 (+37.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.36 -
$29.39
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($35.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.36 -
$29.39
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.53
Resistance Level
$27.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.17
Wall Street Target
$35.29
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$22.46
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$21.00
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10ā12)
$25.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$76.88
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.8%)
$34.97
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 10.8%)
$29.73
(+16%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
Bull Case
$48.26
(+82%)
Analyst growth 65.0%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$43.88
(+65%)
Market implied 65.0%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$18.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$31.33
(+22.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Angela A Stephens
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-12
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-11-10
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