KNF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNF - Knife River Corporation
$75.46
-6.66 (-8.10%)
▼
5d:
-13.37%
30d:
-13.91%
90d:
+7.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KNF is down 13.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KNF is down 13.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.67
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNF is currently trading at $75.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.56 to $87.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.82 (+25.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.82 (+25.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$79.56 -
$87.52
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($102.82)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.56 -
$87.52
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.74
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.55
Resistance Level
$88.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.38
Wall Street Target
$102.82
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.1%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 21.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.14
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$78.22
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$76.34
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$82.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$177.27
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$161.67
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 25.3%)
$137.42
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.76
Bull Case
$129.88
(+53%)
Analyst growth 46.0%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$118.08
(+39%)
Market implied 46.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$55.01
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.4 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$88.22
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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