VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$303.19
8.16 (2.77%)
▲
5d:
-3.12%
30d:
+7.58%
90d:
+8.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$448.98
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$278.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $303.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $274.33 to $301.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $288.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $288.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$274.33 -
$301.96
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($326.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$274.33 -
$301.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$269.53
Resistance Level
$288.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.00
Wall Street Target
$326.50
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
28.0 vs 27.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$303.80
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$304.40
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$305.01
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$302.86
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.0, Growth: 17.5%)
$492.01
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$382.75
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$325.34
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.44
Bull Case
$416.40
(+37%)
Analyst growth 28.3%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$378.54
(+25%)
Market implied 28.3%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$200.62
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Melissa H Anderson
SELL
1137 shares
2026-02-20
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