MLM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLM - Martin Marietta Materials
$555.78
-2.88 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-5.15%
30d:
-10.65%
90d:
-16.62%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MLM is down 5.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $700 2026-07-17 with 70 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MLM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MLM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$996.07
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$618.48
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLM is currently trading at $555.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $585.59 to $627.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.1) compared to its historical average (27.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1220.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $556.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $688.86 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $556.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $688.86 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$585.59 -
$627.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MLM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($688.86)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$585.59 -
$627.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$23.09
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$556.56
Resistance Level
$624.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.06
Wall Street Target
$688.86
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1220.8%
Profit Margin
39.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 27.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$532.44
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$510.07
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$488.65
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$556.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$943.13
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$866.31
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$736.36
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.98
Bull Case
$888.33
(+60%)
Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$807.57
(+45%)
Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$379.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 27.4
Stabilization Target:
$632.94
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-09
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Advanced MLM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MLM price and gamma walls.
