MLM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLM - Martin Marietta Materials
$599.42
20.18 (3.48%)
▲
5d:
-4.69%
30d:
+3.9%
90d:
+0.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MLM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MLM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$958.81
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$595.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLM is currently trading at $599.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $558.55 to $604.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1220.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $592.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $681.78 (+13.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $592.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $681.78 (+13.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$558.55 -
$604.85
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($681.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$558.55 -
$604.85
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$553.58
Resistance Level
$592.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.15
Wall Street Target
$681.78
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1220.8%
Profit Margin
39.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.2 vs 26.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$593.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$587.49
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$581.62
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$598.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$982.79
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$818.61
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$695.82
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.97
Bull Case
$914.61
(+53%)
Analyst growth 43.5%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$831.46
(+39%)
Market implied 43.5%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$393.88
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.1 to 26.9
Stabilization Target:
$616.65
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-09
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