KNSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSA - Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc Class A Ordinary Shares
$45.70
-0.05 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
+2.72%
90d:
+8.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.03
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSA is currently trading at $45.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.66 to $47.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.2) compared to its historical average (25.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.38 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.38 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$44.66 -
$47.01
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($57.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$44.66 -
$47.01
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.11
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.36
Resistance Level
$47.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.18
Wall Street Target
$57.38
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
550.0%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
28.2 vs 25.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.48
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$49.33
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$51.26
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.2, Growth: 35.2%)
$112.86
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 35.2%)
$89.52
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 35.2%)
$76.09
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (61x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 61.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$101.38
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 67.6
Base Case
$92.16
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 61.4
Bear Case
$31.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 52.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Barry D Quart
SELL
2690 shares
2026-02-12
Barry D Quart
SELL
110 shares
2026-02-10
Mark Ragosa
SELL
17845 shares
2026-02-09
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