KOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KOF - Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B DE C.V
$96.21
0.64 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
+2.84%
30d:
-13.44%
90d:
-0.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$261.73
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$162.51
40.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KOF is currently trading at $96.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.08 to $108.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KOF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KOF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.39 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KOF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KOF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.39 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$96.08 -
$108.85
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.39)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$96.08 -
$108.85
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.26
(3.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.53
Resistance Level
$98.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.63
Wall Street Target
$113.39
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.01
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$77.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$69.67
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$99.01
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 24.5%)
$389.08
(+307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 24.5%)
$184.56
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 24.5%)
$156.87
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.35
Bull Case
$147.43
(+58%)
Analyst growth 41.6%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$134.03
(+43%)
Market implied 41.6%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$64.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$135.82
(+42.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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