KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$33.30
-0.07 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
+9.68%
90d:
+29.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.33
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $33.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.17 to $32.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.17 -
$32.47
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.06)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 9.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.17 -
$32.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.57
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.18
Wall Street Target
$34.06
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.30
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$35.33
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$36.39
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$74.18
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$44.89
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$38.16
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$68.70
(+106%)
Analyst growth 87.2%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$62.45
(+88%)
Market implied 87.2%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$22.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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