LW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LW - Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
$45.93
-0.03 (-0.07%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.03
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LW is currently trading at $45.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.37 to $44.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.64 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.64 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$41.37 -
$44.41
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($54.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 1.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$41.37 -
$44.41
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.38
Resistance Level
$46.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.16
Wall Street Target
$54.64
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.7%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$46.79
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$47.21
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.09
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$91.92
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 10.8%)
$62.50
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$53.12
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.76
Bull Case
$54.93
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$49.94
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$30.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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