LWAY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LWAY - Lifeway Foods Inc
$22.03
0.20 (0.92%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LWAY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: LWAY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.42
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.23
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LWAY is currently trading at $22.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.85 to $23.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LWAY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LWAY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+58.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LWAY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LWAY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+58.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$21.85 -
$23.29
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.9% below Wall St target ($35.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.85 -
$23.29
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.42
Resistance Level
$22.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.91
Wall Street Target
$35.00
(+58.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.30
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$22.43
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.4%)
$46.71
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 19.4%)
$37.52
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 19.4%)
$31.89
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$39.58
(+80%)
Analyst growth 66.2%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$35.99
(+63%)
Market implied 66.2%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$14.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LWAY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ludmila Smolyansky
SELL
10000 shares
2025-10-08
Ludmila Smolyansky
SELL
5000 shares
2025-10-07
Edward Smolyansky
SELL
83643 shares
2025-10-01
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