LX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LX - LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. American Depositary Shares
$2.85
-0.03 (-1.04%)
ā¼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: LX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: LX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.44
35.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LX is currently trading at $2.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.96 to $3.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.2) compared to its historical average (0.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 110.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.65 (+304.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.65 (+304.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$2.96 -
$3.30
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 304.6% below Wall St target ($11.65)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2.96 -
$3.30
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.83
Resistance Level
$3.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.16
Wall Street Target
$11.65
(+304.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.2 vs 0.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$2.82
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$2.79
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0ā0)
$3.55
(+23%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.2%)
$1154.01
(+39970%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.2, Growth: 41.2%)
$8.11
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.1, Growth: 41.2%)
$6.89
(+139%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.28
Bull Case
$9.11
(+220%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 3.6
Base Case
$8.28
(+191%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 3.2
Bear Case
$2.82
(-1%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.2 to 0.2
Stabilization Target:
$3.67
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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