LYTS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LYTS - LSI Industries Inc
$22.11
-0.19 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
+19.38%
90d:
-4.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LYTS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LYTS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.53
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.03
18.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LYTS is currently trading at $22.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.56 to $21.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYTS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.40, while resistance sits at $24.75.
Market Sentiment: LYTS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.33 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYTS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.40, while resistance sits at $24.75.
Market Sentiment: LYTS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.33 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.56 -
$21.48
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($29.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.56 -
$21.48
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.26
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.40
Resistance Level
$24.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.30
Wall Street Target
$29.33
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.98
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$21.85
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$21.71
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$22.14
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.6%)
$62.29
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 24.6%)
$42.74
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 24.6%)
$36.33
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$41.73
(+89%)
Analyst growth 76.2%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$37.94
(+72%)
Market implied 76.2%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$14.64
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.54
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LYTS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James E Galeese
SELL
54575 shares
2025-09-08
James Anthony Clark
SELL
26597 shares
2025-08-27
James E Galeese
SELL
6064 shares
2025-08-27
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