M Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
M - Macy's Inc.
$18.31
-0.12 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
-4.78%
30d:
-4.39%
90d:
-16.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
M is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 2,470 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: M shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: M shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.20
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: M is currently trading at $18.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.62 to $19.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.62 -
$19.87
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.62 -
$19.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.99
Resistance Level
$20.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.56
Wall Street Target
$19.40
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.89
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$17.48
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$17.08
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$18.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -2.9%)
$43.17
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -2.9%)
$16.76
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -2.9%)
$14.25
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.32
Bull Case
$18.70
(+2%)
Analyst growth -7.8%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$17.00
(-7%)
Market implied -7.8%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$12.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$19.68
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is M showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Antony Spring
SELL
50044 shares
2026-04-06
Danielle L Kirgan
SELL
10010 shares
2026-04-06
Olivier Bron
SELL
7228 shares
2026-04-06
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