Is MA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MA is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $533.54 and $577.26. The current price is $538.79.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $662.81. This implies a potential upside of 21.9% from current levels.

MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$538.79

-4.94 (-0.91%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Jan 29, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 16.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$770.52

Based on 10.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$478.43

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $538.79, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $533.54 to $577.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.4) is in line with its historical norms (29.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $544.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $662.81 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Fair Price Range $533.54 - $577.26

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($662.81)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $533.54 - $577.26

Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $518.27

Resistance Level $544.24

Current Trend Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.43

Wall Street Target $662.81 (+21.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.9%

Profit Margin 45.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 28.4 vs 29.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $539.92 (-1%)

2-Year Target $536.14 (-1%)

3-Year Target $532.39 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→29) $544.90 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 28.4, Growth: 16.2%) $852.49 (+57%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.2%) $668.63 (+23%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 16.2%) $568.34 (+5%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 33.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.66

Bull Case $699.07 (+29%)

Analyst growth 22.1%, PE expands to 36.6

Base Case $635.52 (+17%)

Market implied 22.1%, PE stable at 33.2

Bear Case $353.88 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.4 to 29.1

Stabilization Target: $556.51 (+2.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.3%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Val T. Hoyle SELL 2025-09-23

J. Mehra Sachin SELL 17263 shares 2025-09-02

Michael T. McCaul SELL 2025-08-21

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