MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MA - Mastercard Incorporated
$490.78
6.54 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
-1.92%
30d:
-5.11%
90d:
-15.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
MA is up 5.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $480 2026-05-15 with 1,425 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 24% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 24% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$900.72
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$559.28
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $490.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $496.35 to $521.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $483.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $661.12 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $483.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $661.12 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$496.35 -
$521.37
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($661.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$496.35 -
$521.37
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$483.00
Resistance Level
$516.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.38
Wall Street Target
$661.12
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.2%
Profit Margin
45.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$453.25
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$424.24
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$397.09
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$484.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$784.01
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$748.14
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 15.6%)
$635.92
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.53
Bull Case
$747.92
(+50%)
Analyst growth 37.0%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$679.93
(+36%)
Market implied 37.0%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$337.50
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$591.28
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
5
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Sheldon Whitehouse
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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