MAIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAIN - Main Street Capital Corporation
$63.80
-0.78 (-1.21%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.77
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAIN is currently trading at $63.80, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.74 to $64.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $62.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $62.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$60.74 -
$64.03
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 2.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.74 -
$64.03
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.63
(2.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.50
Resistance Level
$65.23
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.13
Wall Street Target
$63.43
(-0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.7%
Profit Margin
95.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$65.34
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$66.12
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$63.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.9%)
$88.53
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 12.9%)
$64.05
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 12.9%)
$54.44
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.04
Bull Case
$46.29
(-27%)
Analyst growth -34.5%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$42.08
(-34%)
Market implied -34.5%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$43.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nicholas Meserve
SELL
14000 shares
2025-08-14
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Advanced MAIN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAIN price and gamma walls.
