MATV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MATV - Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$8.70
0.17 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+0.93%
30d:
-18.54%
90d:
-28.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MATV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.5% annual earnings decline despite 6448% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MATV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.5% annual earnings decline despite 6448% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.30
46.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MATV is currently trading at $8.70, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.45 to $10.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6447.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.25 (+109.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.25 (+109.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.45 -
$10.44
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 109.8% below Wall St target ($18.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.45 -
$10.44
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.82
(9.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.10
Resistance Level
$8.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.90
Wall Street Target
$18.25
(+109.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6447.8%
Profit Margin
-17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.34
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$9.83
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 31.9%)
$64.68
(+643%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 31.9%)
$19.98
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 31.9%)
$16.98
(+95%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$13.48
(+55.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 7:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MATV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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