MCHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCHP - Microchip Technology Inc
$75.92
-3.44 (-4.33%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCHP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCHP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.65
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCHP is currently trading at $75.92, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.90 to $76.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (40.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.28, while resistance sits at $81.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.28, while resistance sits at $81.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$66.90 -
$76.86
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$66.90 -
$76.86
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.28
Resistance Level
$81.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.12
Wall Street Target
$83.12
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.6%
Profit Margin
-4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 40.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$64.85
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$58.63
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→41)
$79.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 71.4%)
$267.84
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 71.4%)
$198.31
(+150%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 71.4%)
$168.56
(+112%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.1 to 40.8
Stabilization Target:
$107.50
(+35.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Eric Bjornholt
SELL
7356 shares
2025-08-25
Matthew W Chapman
SELL
10000 shares
2025-08-25
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Advanced MCHP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCHP price and gamma walls.
