MD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$21.38
0.38 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
-2.02%
90d:
+19.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.46
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $21.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.24 to $22.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 265.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.25, while resistance sits at $22.56.
Market Sentiment: MD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.25, while resistance sits at $22.56.
Market Sentiment: MD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$21.24 -
$22.33
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.24 -
$22.33
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.53
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.25
Resistance Level
$22.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.78
Wall Street Target
$22.67
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
265.2%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.17
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.95
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$20.74
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$21.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.9%)
$56.27
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 4.9%)
$24.67
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.9%)
$20.97
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.91
Bull Case
$26.03
(+22%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$23.66
(+11%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$14.06
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$22.09
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 3:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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