MDGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDGL - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock
$528.10
13.71 (2.67%)
▲
5d:
+2.79%
30d:
+16.61%
90d:
-0.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$433.66
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$269.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDGL is currently trading at $528.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $479.48 to $521.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 42.7) compared to its historical average (105.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $485.56, while resistance sits at $545.87.
Market Sentiment: MDGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $678.71 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $485.56, while resistance sits at $545.87.
Market Sentiment: MDGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $678.71 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$479.48 -
$521.53
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.5% below Wall St target ($678.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$479.48 -
$521.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$42.78
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$485.56
Resistance Level
$545.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.66
Wall Street Target
$678.71
(+28.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.8%
Profit Margin
-27.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.7 vs 105.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$475.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$427.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$384.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→105)
$947.63
(+79%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.7 to 105.0
Stabilization Target:
$1299.90
(+146.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+146.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mardi Dier
SELL
1982 shares
2026-03-06
Carole Huntsman
SELL
419 shares
2026-03-06
William John Sibold
SELL
1663 shares
2026-03-06
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Advanced MDGL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDGL price and gamma walls.
