MEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEC - Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$19.60
-0.05 (-0.25%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEC is currently trading at $19.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.15 to $19.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.9) is in line with its historical norms (42.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MEC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.60 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MEC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.60 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.15 -
$19.33
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($24.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 6.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.15 -
$19.33
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.14
(21.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.62
Resistance Level
$19.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.90
Wall Street Target
$24.60
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
46.9 vs 42.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.24
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$20.85
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$21.47
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→43)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.9, Growth: 218.6%)
$66.32
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 218.6%)
$31.53
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 218.6%)
$26.80
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 32.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$15.04
(-23%)
Analyst growth -27.8%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$13.68
(-30%)
Market implied -27.8%, PE stable at 32.6
Bear Case
$12.87
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Sean P Leuba
BUY
500 shares
2025-08-11
Rachele Marie Lehr
BUY
1400 shares
2025-08-08
Jagadeesh A Reddy
BUY
7500 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced MEC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MEC price and gamma walls.
