MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$10.29
0.24 (2.39%)
ā²
5d:
+2.39%
30d:
-0.44%
90d:
+10.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.28
Based on -4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $10.29, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.00 to $10.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$10.00 -
$10.38
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 8.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.00 -
$10.38
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$0.53
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.70
Resistance Level
$10.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.95
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.33
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$10.37
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$10.41
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7ā7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.9%)
$24.06
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: -11.9%)
$7.50
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: -11.9%)
$6.38
(-38%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$9.40
(-9%)
Analyst growth -13.5%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$8.54
(-17%)
Market implied -13.5%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$6.71
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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