MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$8.45
-0.11 (-1.29%)
ā¼
5d:
-0.47%
30d:
-16.83%
90d:
-18.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: MFIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
ā BUY SIGNAL: MFIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.97
34.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $8.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.58 to $10.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.85, while resistance sits at $8.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.75 (+39.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.85, while resistance sits at $8.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.75 (+39.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.58 -
$10.01
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.1% below Wall St target ($11.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.58 -
$10.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$0.87
(10.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.85
Resistance Level
$8.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.12
Wall Street Target
$11.75
(+39.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.81
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$7.21
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$6.67
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5ā7)
$8.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 32.0%)
$84.82
(+904%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 32.0%)
$19.43
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 32.0%)
$16.52
(+96%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$8.53
(-2%)
Analyst growth -7.3%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$7.76
(-11%)
Market implied -7.3%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$5.69
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$10.72
(+26.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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