MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$18.27
0.04 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
-1.93%
30d:
-8.79%
90d:
-28.91%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.67
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $18.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.68 to $20.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+55.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+55.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.68 -
$20.09
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.4% below Wall St target ($28.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.68 -
$20.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.79
Resistance Level
$20.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$28.40
(+55.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$17.44
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$17.04
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$18.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 29.7%)
$101.59
(+456%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 29.7%)
$39.90
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 29.7%)
$33.91
(+86%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$19.58
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Karen Seaberg
SELL
81616 shares
2025-12-10
Karen Seaberg
SELL
181095 shares
2025-12-09
Karen Seaberg
SELL
41824 shares
2025-12-08
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