MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$31.57
-0.55 (-1.71%)
▼
5d:
+0.89%
30d:
+10.58%
90d:
+43.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.54
13.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $31.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.89 to $31.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.91, while resistance sits at $32.76.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.91, while resistance sits at $32.76.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$27.89 -
$31.08
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.89)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -2.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.89 -
$31.08
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.91
Resistance Level
$32.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.42
Wall Street Target
$31.89
(+1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
24.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.08
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.59
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$33.11
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 55.6%)
$49.76
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 55.6%)
$32.10
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 55.6%)
$27.28
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$41.29
(+34%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$37.53
(+21%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$20.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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