MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$25.51
-0.02 (-0.08%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGY trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MGY trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.19
Based on -3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $25.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.59 to $24.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.54, while resistance sits at $26.48.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.54, while resistance sits at $26.48.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$21.59 -
$24.10
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
MGY is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.94)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.3% growth with -2.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.59 -
$24.10
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.54
Resistance Level
$26.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.39
Wall Street Target
$26.94
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.1%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 13.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.37
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$29.37
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$31.51
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.0%)
$25.30
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: -11.0%)
$18.60
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: -11.0%)
$15.09
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$24.09
(-6%)
Analyst growth -13.2%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$21.90
(-14%)
Market implied -13.2%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$17.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MGY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MGY price and gamma walls.
