MKC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS
$61.83
0.51 (0.83%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MKC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MKC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.24
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKC is currently trading at $61.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.26 to $68.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.62, while resistance sits at $68.35.
Market Sentiment: MKC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.85 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.62, while resistance sits at $68.35.
Market Sentiment: MKC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.85 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$63.26 -
$68.97
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MKC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($72.85)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$63.26 -
$68.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.62
Resistance Level
$68.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.44
Wall Street Target
$72.85
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$56.63
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$54.42
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$61.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.6%)
$92.50
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$76.47
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$65.00
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.93
Bull Case
$77.24
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$70.22
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$42.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$68.85
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lawrence Erik Kurzius
SELL
50000 shares
2025-10-08
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-25
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