MLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$136.14
-1.24 (-0.90%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.53
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $136.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.43 to $133.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$118.43 -
$133.26
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Protect Your Profits
MLI is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($135.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$118.43 -
$133.26
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.52
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.25
Resistance Level
$137.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.68
Wall Street Target
$135.50
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.40
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$148.95
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$155.80
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$136.59
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$214.46
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 7.7%)
$170.04
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$144.53
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.69
Bull Case
$170.30
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$154.82
(+14%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$91.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John B Hansen
SELL
1000 shares
2025-10-23
John B Hansen
SELL
1000 shares
2025-08-12
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Advanced MLI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MLI price and gamma walls.
