Is MORN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MORN is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MORN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MORN to be between $164.60 and $186.98. The current price is $164.07.

What is the analyst price target for MORN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MORN is $246.00. This implies a potential upside of 56.9% from current levels.

MORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MORN - Morningstar, Inc.

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$164.08

7.26 (4.63%) ▲

5d: -5.7%

30d: -10.41%

90d: -25.1%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MORN Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 29, 2026 29d

Smart Money Accumulation

MORN is down 8.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $200 2026-05-15 with 3 OI. Call ratio: 80% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$342.03

Based on 9.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$212.37

22.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MORN is currently trading at $164.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $164.60 to $186.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $156.37, while resistance sits at $187.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: MORN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.00 (+56.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $164.60 - $186.98

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 15th percentile (COMPLACENCY WARNING)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 69.2%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
BULLISH: Trading 56.9% below Wall St target ($246.00)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $164.60 - $186.98

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$8.76 (5.3%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $156.37

Resistance Level $187.44

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.08

Wall Street Target $246.00 (+56.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 8.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 4.5%

Profit Margin 15.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -11.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 12.1 vs 17.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -11.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $141.13 (-10%)

2-Year Target $127.02 (-19%)

3-Year Target $114.31 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→17) $161.75 (+3%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.2%) $432.79 (+176%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 14.2%) $233.49 (+49%)

Bear: (PE: 10.3, Growth: 14.2%) $198.47 (+27%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 20.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.88

Bull Case $287.83 (+65%)

Analyst growth 46.1%, PE expands to 22.2

Base Case $261.66 (+50%)

Market implied 46.1%, PE stable at 20.2

Bear Case $121.77 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 17.1

Stabilization Target: $221.88 (+41.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +41.5%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Michael Holt BUY 1000 shares 2026-03-04

Joseph D Mansueto SELL 3122 shares 2026-03-02

Joseph D Mansueto SELL 7250 shares 2026-02-26

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MORN price and gamma walls.

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