MORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MORN - Morningstar, Inc.
$202.09
0.85 (0.42%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$338.29
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$210.05
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MORN is currently trading at $202.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $207.84 to $218.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $197.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MORN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.67 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $197.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MORN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.67 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$207.84 -
$218.55
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.5% below Wall St target ($280.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$207.84 -
$218.55
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.89
(3.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.34
Resistance Level
$216.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.59
Wall Street Target
$280.67
(+39.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.7%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$196.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$192.09
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$187.67
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$201.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.8%)
$365.07
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 14.8%)
$304.29
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$258.65
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.80
Bull Case
$276.89
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$251.72
(+25%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$139.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$216.53
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph D Mansueto
SELL
6705 shares
2025-08-27
Joseph D Mansueto
SELL
3532 shares
2025-08-26
Joseph D Mansueto
SELL
1644 shares
2025-08-25
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Advanced MORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MORN price and gamma walls.
