MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$27.50
-0.54 (-1.93%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
MOS is down 4.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-03-20 with 7,000 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.34
Based on 0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.73
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $27.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.61 to $27.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.85, while resistance sits at $29.13.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.46 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.85, while resistance sits at $29.13.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.46 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$24.61 -
$27.82
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.46)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.61 -
$27.82
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.85
Resistance Level
$29.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.13
Wall Street Target
$32.46
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.33
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$30.68
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$32.09
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.97
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.5%)
$52.08
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -2.5%)
$25.99
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -2.5%)
$22.09
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$20.20
(-27%)
Analyst growth -34.7%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$18.37
(-33%)
Market implied -34.7%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$19.14
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MOS price and gamma walls.
