MPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$34.06
-0.20 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
+3.46%
30d:
+7.92%
90d:
+7.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.71
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $34.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.74 to $33.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$31.74 -
$33.38
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with 33.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.74 -
$33.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.46
Resistance Level
$33.87
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.45
Wall Street Target
$35.50
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.3%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.49
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$36.77
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$38.09
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$118.82
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$51.23
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 14.4%)
$43.55
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.20
Bull Case
$61.48
(+80%)
Analyst growth 64.8%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$55.89
(+63%)
Market implied 64.8%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$23.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 10:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
972 shares
2026-03-12
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
1618 shares
2026-03-12
Thomas R Brugger
BUY
818 shares
2026-03-06
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