MPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$33.14
-1.12 (-3.27%)
▼
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
+4.91%
90d:
+5.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.75
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $33.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.11 to $34.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.50 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.50 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.11 -
$34.10
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.11 -
$34.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.87
Resistance Level
$35.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$36.50
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.3%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.81
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$32.65
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$33.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$100.55
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 6.8%)
$40.37
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$34.32
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.20
Bull Case
$68.61
(+107%)
Analyst growth 82.0%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$62.37
(+88%)
Market implied 82.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$23.30
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$33.64
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 30, 2026 1:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
972 shares
2026-03-12
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
1618 shares
2026-03-12
Thomas R Brugger
BUY
818 shares
2026-03-06
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