MPTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPTI - M-tron Industries, Inc.
$66.10
-2.94 (-4.25%)
▼
5d:
+11.25%
30d:
+4.43%
90d:
+29.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.01
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.72
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPTI is currently trading at $66.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.87 to $68.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.9) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.03, while resistance sits at $79.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.03, while resistance sits at $79.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$61.87 -
$68.78
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($71.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.87 -
$68.78
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.03
Resistance Level
$79.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.88
Wall Street Target
$71.50
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.7%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$68.07
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$67.59
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$69.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 22.3%)
$129.24
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 22.3%)
$126.23
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 22.3%)
$107.30
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.40
Bull Case
$70.74
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.5%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$64.31
(+8%)
Market implied 7.5%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$40.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.9 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$70.67
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
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