MPWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1124.15
-59.00 (-4.99%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$872.45
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$541.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1124.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $932.19 to $1081.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 56.7) compared to its historical average (46.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1008.50, while resistance sits at $1185.05. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1008.50, while resistance sits at $1185.05. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$932.19 -
$1081.01
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1203.21)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.1% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$932.19 -
$1081.01
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$86.81
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1008.50
Resistance Level
$1185.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
56.72
Wall Street Target
$1203.21
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
71.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.1% premium
PE vs Historical
56.7 vs 46.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1267.15
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$1357.12
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$1453.48
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→46)
PE COMPRESSION
$1181.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 56.7, Growth: 17.9%)
$1938.82
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.9%)
$762.25
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.9%)
$647.91
(-45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 29.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $39.04
Bull Case
$682.81
(-39%)
Analyst growth -46.6%, PE expands to 32.7
Base Case
$620.74
(-45%)
Market implied -46.6%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$790.01
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
1300 shares
2025-10-24
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Advanced MPWR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPWR price and gamma walls.
