MPWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1002.34
-50.67 (-4.81%)
▼
5d:
-6.88%
30d:
-12.29%
90d:
+5.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MPWR is down 10.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $1170 2026-05-15 with 69 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPWR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MPWR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1133.89
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$704.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1002.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1038.78 to $1157.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 38.8) compared to its historical average (45.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1001.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPWR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1328.29 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1001.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPWR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1328.29 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$1038.78 -
$1157.27
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MPWR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($1328.29)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1038.78 -
$1157.27
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$84.40
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1001.93
Resistance Level
$1127.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.78
Wall Street Target
$1328.29
(+32.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.2%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
38.8 vs 45.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$949.22
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$898.91
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$851.27
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→46)
$1003.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$1737.02
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.1%)
$1001.03
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 20.1%)
$850.87
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 48.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $22.07
Bull Case
$1299.69
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$1076.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$823.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.8 to 45.7
Stabilization Target:
$1181.12
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice Sciammas
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-11
Victor K Lee
SELL
400 shares
2026-02-09
Maurice Sciammas
SELL
22875 shares
2026-02-06
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Advanced MPWR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPWR price and gamma walls.
