MRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRK - Merck & Co., Inc.
$110.27
1.93 (1.78%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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6 traders called MRK this week
83% bullish • 1 bearish
83% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRK trades at premium valuation expecting 12.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MRK trades at premium valuation expecting 12.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.12
Based on -16.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.08
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRK is currently trading at $110.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.32 to $110.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$106.32 -
$110.05
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($117.48)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 12.3% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$106.32 -
$110.05
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.03
Resistance Level
$111.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.13
Wall Street Target
$117.48
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
87.0%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.3% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 13.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.67
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$136.63
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$153.44
(+42%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$108.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -36.6%)
$92.06
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: -36.6%)
$78.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: -36.6%)
$55.73
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.56
Bull Case
$88.08
(-20%)
Analyst growth -25.1%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$80.08
(-27%)
Market implied -25.1%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$72.69
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-08-28
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