MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$89.97
-0.33 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
+3.28%
30d:
-4.12%
90d:
+2.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MSM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MSM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.12
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $89.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.82 to $93.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.15, while resistance sits at $92.94.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.15, while resistance sits at $92.94.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$88.82 -
$93.29
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($86.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$88.82 -
$93.29
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.53
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.15
Resistance Level
$92.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.58
Wall Street Target
$86.20
(-4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.16
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$88.36
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$87.56
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$90.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$156.42
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 13.1%)
$130.01
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 13.1%)
$110.51
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$124.44
(+43%)
Analyst growth 32.0%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$113.13
(+30%)
Market implied 32.0%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$58.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$92.51
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Mitchell Jacobson
BUY
22870 shares
2025-11-18
Philip Peller
BUY
6666 shares
2025-11-13
Mitchell Jacobson
BUY
51954 shares
2025-11-03
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