MTSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
$219.06
-8.67 (-3.81%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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1 traders called MTSI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$229.91
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$142.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $219.06, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $173.49 to $220.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.4) is in line with its historical norms (40.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$173.49 -
$220.64
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($207.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$173.49 -
$220.64
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.83
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.00
Resistance Level
$231.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.40
Wall Street Target
$207.13
(-9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.4%
Profit Margin
-5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
44.4 vs 40.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$234.56
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$241.60
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$248.85
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$227.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.4, Growth: 21.1%)
$404.06
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.1%)
$202.93
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 21.1%)
$172.49
(-24%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
36762 shares
2025-10-20
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SELL
102261 shares
2025-10-16
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4128 shares
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Advanced MTSI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTSI price and gamma walls.
