MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$27.07
0.08 (0.30%)
ā²
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: MWA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: MWA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.86
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $27.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.46 to $26.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $27.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $27.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$24.46 -
$26.62
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.46 -
$26.62
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$1.10
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.88
Resistance Level
$27.14
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.87
Wall Street Target
$27.67
(+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
451.1%
Profit Margin
13.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$27.64
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$27.97
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18ā17)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.9%)
$42.25
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$33.86
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 7.9%)
$28.79
(+7%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.22
Bull Case
$36.36
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$33.06
(+22%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$18.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian C Healy
BUY
1070 shares
2025-10-07
Suzanne G Smith
SELL
750 shares
2025-09-08
Suzanne G Smith
SELL
1288 shares
2025-08-28
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Advanced MWA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MWA price and gamma walls.
