MXL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MXL - MaxLinear, Inc. Common Stock
$16.08
-0.92 (-5.41%)
▼
5d:
-6.18%
30d:
-7.75%
90d:
-9.31%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
MXL is down 5.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $17 2026-04-17 with 111 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MXL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MXL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.79
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MXL is currently trading at $16.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.39 to $17.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MXL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.55 (+34.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MXL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.55 (+34.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.39 -
$17.91
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MXL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.0% below Wall St target ($21.55)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.39 -
$17.91
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.35
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.87
Resistance Level
$18.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.15
Wall Street Target
$21.55
(+34.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.4%
Profit Margin
-29.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.72
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→20)
$16.15
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 32.1%)
$58.60
(+264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 32.1%)
$37.11
(+131%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 32.1%)
$31.54
(+96%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$22.16
(+37.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MXL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven G Litchfield
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-06
Steven G Litchfield
SELL
4929 shares
2026-03-05
Steven G Litchfield
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced MXL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MXL price and gamma walls.
