MZTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MZTI - The Marzetti Company Common Stock
$138.48
0.15 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
-0.98%
30d:
-16.74%
90d:
-15.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MZTI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MZTI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.24
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.47
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MZTI is currently trading at $138.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.92 to $163.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $136.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $192.00 (+38.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $136.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $192.00 (+38.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$140.92 -
$163.60
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.6% below Wall St target ($192.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$140.92 -
$163.60
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.72
Resistance Level
$146.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.81
Wall Street Target
$192.00
(+38.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 21.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.39
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$126.56
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$120.99
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$138.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$190.43
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 5.0%)
$160.27
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 5.0%)
$136.23
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.54
Bull Case
$178.41
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$162.19
(+13%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$97.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$158.28
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MZTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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