NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$44.09
-0.29 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
-3.29%
30d:
-1.14%
90d:
-3.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NBTB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NBTB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.67
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $44.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.09 to $45.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.92 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.92 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$44.09 -
$45.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.09 -
$45.39
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.59
Resistance Level
$45.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.71
Wall Street Target
$48.92
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.00
(0%)
2-Year Target
$43.91
(0%)
3-Year Target
$43.83
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$44.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.8%)
$129.17
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$56.80
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 8.8%)
$48.28
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.54
Bull Case
$62.65
(+42%)
Analyst growth 28.3%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$56.95
(+29%)
Market implied 28.3%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$30.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$44.52
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Amy Wiles
SELL
4435 shares
2026-02-17
Timothy E Delaney
BUY
22730 shares
2026-01-28
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