NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$50.08
-0.17 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+1.66%
30d:
+7.72%
90d:
+16.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.19
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $50.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.03 to $48.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$46.03 -
$48.87
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.42)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.03 -
$48.87
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.74
Resistance Level
$47.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.04
Wall Street Target
$50.42
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.93
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$53.85
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$55.85
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$127.28
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$64.52
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$54.85
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.54
Bull Case
$70.82
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.1%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$64.38
(+29%)
Market implied 28.1%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$34.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Amy Wiles
SELL
4435 shares
2026-02-17
Timothy E Delaney
BUY
22730 shares
2026-01-28
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