NCDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCDL - Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp
$13.50
0.06 (0.45%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCDL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCDL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.29
Based on -3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.01
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCDL is currently trading at $13.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.39 to $13.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.67 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.67 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$13.39 -
$13.74
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.39 -
$13.74
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.15
Resistance Level
$13.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$15.67
(+16.6%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.37
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.31
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.24
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$13.51
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.3%)
$26.53
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -11.3%)
$9.80
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -11.3%)
$8.33
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$16.18
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$14.71
(+9%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$9.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.71
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Shaul Vichness
BUY
5000 shares
2025-09-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCDL price and gamma walls.
