NCLH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCLH - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$21.96
-0.96 (-4.19%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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1 traders called NCLH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCLH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCLH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.77
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCLH is currently trading at $21.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.29 to $23.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCLH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.33, while resistance sits at $23.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.70 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCLH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.33, while resistance sits at $23.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.70 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.29 -
$23.85
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($27.70)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.29 -
$23.85
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.33
Resistance Level
$23.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.71
Wall Street Target
$27.70
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.47
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$24.03
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$24.61
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.4%)
$115.72
(+405%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 25.4%)
$45.21
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 25.4%)
$38.43
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$43.28
(+97%)
Analyst growth 89.3%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$39.35
(+79%)
Market implied 89.3%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$14.14
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCLH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-26
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Advanced NCLH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCLH price and gamma walls.
