NCMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$3.05
0.01 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
-7.85%
30d:
-14.33%
90d:
-22.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NCMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NCMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $3.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.21 to $3.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (45.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 24.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+76.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+76.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$3.21 -
$3.52
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.2% below Wall St target ($5.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.9%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.21 -
$3.52
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.28
(9.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.00
Resistance Level
$3.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.68
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+76.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-24.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 45.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-24.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.22
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→46)
$5.14
(+69%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 158.3%)
$11.69
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 158.3%)
$10.29
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 158.3%)
$8.75
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 45.5
Stabilization Target:
$7.05
(+131.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+131.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
9043 shares
2025-12-29
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