NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$83.75
-0.25 (-0.30%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.91
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $83.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.59 to $82.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.33 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.33 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$79.59 -
$82.82
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($97.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.59 -
$82.82
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.74
(3.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.53
Resistance Level
$84.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.25
Wall Street Target
$97.33
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.7%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.92
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$85.86
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$86.80
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$83.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$254.13
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$116.82
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$99.30
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.68
Bull Case
$131.86
(+57%)
Analyst growth 44.3%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$119.87
(+43%)
Market implied 44.3%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$56.50
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-22
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Advanced NFG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFG price and gamma walls.
