NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$94.19
1.32 (1.42%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+0.71%
90d:
+17.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.72
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $94.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.55 to $94.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$90.55 -
$94.89
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($99.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$90.55 -
$94.89
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.58
Resistance Level
$96.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.16
Wall Street Target
$99.00
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
304.1%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.10
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$97.38
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$99.72
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.1%)
$222.23
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 6.1%)
$110.95
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 6.1%)
$94.31
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.17
Bull Case
$117.09
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.1%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$106.44
(+14%)
Market implied 16.1%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$62.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-10-27
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-10-24
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-10-24
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