NGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGL - NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
$12.20
0.28 (2.35%)
▲
5d:
-10.23%
30d:
-1.77%
90d:
+21.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGL is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGL is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.99
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGL is currently trading at $12.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.41 to $12.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (13.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.21, while resistance sits at $13.92.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.21, while resistance sits at $13.92.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$11.41 -
$12.46
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 58.1% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 6.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.41 -
$12.46
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.92
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.21
Resistance Level
$13.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.54
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-58.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.1%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 13.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.34
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$12.77
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$13.22
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 141.2%)
$61.85
(+419%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 141.2%)
$40.23
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 141.2%)
$34.20
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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