NGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGL - NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
$11.75
0.07 (0.60%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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1 traders called NGL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: NGL is 12.9% above fair value ($10.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: NGL is 12.9% above fair value ($10.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.16
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGL is currently trading at $11.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.43 to $10.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$9.43 -
$10.41
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
NGL is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 57.2% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with -10.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.43 -
$10.41
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.56
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.43
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-57.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.1%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 10.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.30
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$12.95
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$13.64
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.74
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 118.6%)
$70.75
(+506%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 118.6%)
$39.42
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 118.6%)
$33.51
(+187%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Collingsworth
BUY
100000 shares
2025-09-12
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Advanced NGL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NGL price and gamma walls.
