NGVC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGVC - NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC
$27.32
1.07 (4.08%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NGVC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NGVC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.53
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.92
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGVC is currently trading at $27.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.79 to $26.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGVC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.00 (+105.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGVC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.00 (+105.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$24.79 -
$26.48
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 105.7% below Wall St target ($54.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.79 -
$26.48
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.44
(12.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.22
Resistance Level
$26.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.10
Wall Street Target
$54.00
(+105.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$25.94
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$25.78
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$26.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$66.69
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 11.3%)
$36.17
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$30.75
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.88
Bull Case
$40.40
(+48%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$36.73
(+34%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$21.64
(-21%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$26.69
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGVC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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